By Mata Press Service

Canada’s immigration system needs a major reset after a rapid surge in temporary residents strained housing and public services, weakened the focus on skilled newcomers and helped turn public opinion against immigration, according to a new RBC report.

The September report, A Smarter Immigration Strategy, says Canada admitted roughly three million migrants between 2022 and 2024, the equivalent of about a decade of immigration compressed into three years.

RBC says the increase was driven heavily by lower-skilled temporary migration as employers and post-secondary institutions sought workers and international students following the pandemic.

“Canada’s immigration strategy has lost its edge,” the report says, blaming population shocks, frequent policy changes, a reduced focus on skills and experience, and gaps in immigration data and transparency.

RBC is proposing a return to more predictable immigration, including a population growth target of about one per cent a year, renewed emphasis on the federal points system, fewer overlapping immigration categories and a stronger focus on temporary residents with the skills and experience to succeed economically.

The report comes after one of the sharpest swings in Canadian immigration policy in decades.

Temporary residents accounted for less than three per cent of Canada’s population before the pandemic but reached 7.6 per cent in 2024. During the same period, rental prices climbed sharply in major cities including Vancouver and Toronto, while per-capita GDP fell for two consecutive years.

Ottawa later moved to curb temporary immigration and restrict international student admissions.

RBC says that correction has also been disruptive. International students faced more than 25 rule changes in roughly two years, while more than 20,000 jobs were lost in the post-secondary sector, according to figures cited in the report.

The report says 71 per cent of Canadians now believe immigration levels are too high. RBC notes that polling suggests much of the concern is directed at government management of immigration rather than at immigrants themselves.

That shift comes as Canada is becoming increasingly dependent on immigration.

Deaths are beginning to outpace births, more than 25,000 Canadians retire every month and labour-force participation is expected to decline. RBC estimates that without immigration, Canada’s population could fall by half by the end of the century.

One of the report’s strongest criticisms is aimed at Express Entry, Canada’s main system for selecting skilled economic immigrants.

RBC says the points-based system generally works because applicants with stronger education, language skills, age and work experience tend to earn more after arriving.

Principal applicants admitted through point-based Express Entry had median incomes of $75,400 after three years, compared with $56,300 for Provincial Nominee Program immigrants and $38,700 for those admitted through other economic categories.

Canadian Experience Class immigrants have performed particularly well, with median earnings reaching $92,100 after 10 years, compared with $67,400 for economic immigrants generally and $47,600 for Canadians overall.

But RBC argues Ottawa has weakened Express Entry by creating occupation-specific categories that can allow lower-scoring applicants to move ahead of higher-scoring candidates in other fields.

The report says admission through the Canadian Experience Class requires more than 100 points more on average than through some category-based pathways. It also notes that the share of economic immigrants admitted through federally managed point-based selection has fallen from almost 80 per cent in 2000 to about 30 per cent recently.

RBC recommends restoring priority to the highest-scoring candidates while leaving more occupation-specific selection to provinces, which are better placed to assess regional labour shortages.

The report points to British Columbia as one example. It says B.C. will need to expand its non-residential construction workforce by about 10 per cent to complete projects including hospital expansions in Richmond, Vancouver and Surrey. Nationally, Ottawa estimates more than 1.4 million new skilled-trades workers will be needed by 2033.

RBC also focuses heavily on the international student and temporary worker system.

Between 2019 and 2023, study permit approvals increased 102 per cent, post-graduation work permits rose 154 per cent and permits issued under the International Mobility Program climbed 126 per cent. Temporary foreign worker permits increased 88 per cent.

The report says Canada’s traditional two-step immigration model, in which people first study or work temporarily before applying for permanent residence, has historically produced strong results.

Former temporary residents admitted through the Federal Skilled Worker Program earned an average $18,000 more after 10 years than comparable immigrants admitted directly. Permanent residents who had previously studied in Canada earned about 30 per cent more than similarly qualified newcomers without Canadian study experience.

But those gains weakened as temporary migration expanded into lower-paid work and international students were increasingly recruited into programs with weaker labour-market outcomes.

RBC recommends concentrating international recruitment in higher-quality programs tied to labour-market needs and reconsidering how colleges are funded so they are less dependent on international tuition.

The report also highlights serious gaps in immigration data.

A 2026 Auditor General report found Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada did not know whether many international students were leaving after their permits expired.

The Canada Border Services Agency could confirm departures for only about 40 per cent of almost 40,000 expired study permit holders examined in the audit. IRCC and CBSA have since launched a pilot program to improve exit tracking.

RBC also says Canada waits too long to determine how immigrants are performing economically. Its main longitudinal immigration database relies on tax filings and has roughly a two-year reporting lag, compared with about three months for similar migrant employment data in New Zealand.

The bank is calling for faster reporting on earnings, employment and departures, greater transparency around immigration targets and a more stable system that communities, employers and newcomers can plan around.

RBC says Canada will continue to need significant immigration because of its aging population and shrinking workforce. But maintaining public support, it argues, will depend on whether governments can show that newcomers are being selected at manageable levels, finding productive work and arriving in communities with the housing and services needed to support population growth.