By Mata Press Service

Premier David Eby is facing a growing crisis of voter confidence as British Columbia heads into the final days of its provincial election campaign, with a new poll showing the Conservatives holding a narrow lead and the governing New Democrats struggling to retain their traditional supporters.

The latest Angus Reid Institute survey, released this week, puts the BC Conservatives at 46 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 43 per cent for the NDP, leaving the parties in a statistical tie ahead of Saturday's vote.

But beneath the close contest are troubling signs for Eby, whose decision to call an early election has exposed widespread dissatisfaction with his leadership and raised questions about whether enough NDP supporters will turn out to keep his government in power.

Nearly half of British Columbians surveyed say their opinion of Eby has worsened over the past week, including one-quarter of those who voted NDP in the 2024 provincial election.

Only 36 per cent view the premier favourably, compared with 60 per cent who hold an unfavourable opinion, giving him a net favourability rating of minus 24 points.

Meanwhile, BC Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson, who entered the campaign with a relatively low public profile, has seen his favourability climb from 25 per cent in late September to 39 per cent.

The survey also finds that 54 per cent of British Columbians believe it is time for a change in government.

The findings suggest that while Eby has narrowed the Conservatives' earlier lead, he has made far less progress repairing his personal standing or restoring enthusiasm among NDP voters.

Perhaps the most alarming finding for the governing party is the enthusiasm gap between Conservative and NDP supporters.

Nearly three-quarters of Conservative voters, 73 per cent, say they are very certain about their choice, compared with just 54 per cent of NDP supporters.

The Conservatives have retained 89 per cent of those who supported them in the 2024 election, while the NDP has held on to 74 per cent of its previous voters.

Among former NDP supporters who have drifted away, eight per cent now favour the Greens, seven per cent have moved to the Conservatives and another seven per cent remain undecided.

The poll also shows that 30 per cent of those who voted NDP in 2024 believe neither Eby nor Doerkson would make the best premier.

Across the electorate, 36 per cent choose Doerkson as the better premier, compared with 34 per cent for Eby. Another 30 per cent choose neither.

The numbers point to a difficult final stretch for the NDP, which must win back wavering supporters while the Conservatives work to mobilize a more committed electoral base.

The Conservatives are also threatening the NDP's hold on Metro Vancouver, a region that helped secure Eby's narrow victory in 2024.

The latest poll places the NDP at 46 per cent in the region, just one point ahead of the Conservatives at 45 per cent.

That represents a significant shift from the last election, when the NDP won Metro Vancouver by a 10-point margin.

The Conservatives lead by 20 points in the Fraser Valley and 17 points in the Interior, while the NDP maintains a 14-point advantage on Vancouver Island and the North Coast.

Even a modest movement of voters in closely contested Metro Vancouver ridings could determine which party forms the next government.

The survey also reveals significant opposition to one of the Eby government's most consequential pieces of legislation, the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, known as DRIPA.

Forty-four per cent of respondents favour repealing the legislation and pursuing reconciliation through direct agreements and partnerships with First Nations.

Only 24 per cent support maintaining the law while addressing concerns about its implementation, while another 11 per cent want stronger enforcement measures.

Enacted in 2019, DRIPA requires the province to work toward aligning B.C. laws with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

It has become a contentious election issue amid disputes over Indigenous rights, land use and investment certainty.

The poll also highlights divisions over addiction and housing policies.

Thirty-nine per cent favour ending prescribed safer supply programs, expanding mandatory addiction treatment and strengthening drug enforcement. Another 36 per cent support expanding treatment and recovery services, including voluntary and involuntary care.

On housing, 39 per cent favour reducing taxes and regulatory barriers to construction, compared with 30 per cent who support additional taxes targeting speculation and vacant properties.

The findings follow an uneasy start to the campaign after Eby called a snap election in September, two years ahead of schedule.

An earlier Angus Reid survey found that 62 per cent of British Columbians believed the election was being held too soon, while 65 per cent felt Eby was putting his political interests ahead of those of the province.
The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 793 British Columbian adults online between Oct. 15 and 19. Results were weighted to reflect the population. A probability sample of that size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, although that margin does not technically apply to an online panel survey.

British Columbians vote Saturday, Oct. 24.